The average winning SP since 2012 has been 27/1, and there have been nine winners priced 20/1 or bigger since the race’s inception in 2005; so the market doesn’t have a clue who wins either! The suggestion, then, is to ignore anything shorter than 16/1 and try to make a case for two or three darts, win only, for small change. The win market is all about Constitution Hill, who better ratings judges are suggesting is the best we’ve seen in a very, very long time. If that’s right, he’s a fair enough price for those who like playing big at short.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Pace Map
Lantry Lady, who falls into the “could be anything” category, boasts a perfect 2-2 record over hurdles with wins on heavy ground. The 2m 4f distance should bring out more improvement in her. Although Rachael Blackmore appears to prefer Telmesomethinggirl, Jack Kennedy is a capable substitute. Both of Henry de Bromhead’s mares present each-way opportunities. It’s at this time of year that we hear plenty of “the best I’ve ever trained” bluster, and Pauling has gone on record as naming this fellow in that category.
- There are other credible contenders in the field, not least Galvin, but if Royale Pagaille lines up here rather than his other entries, he’ll take some beating.
- In terms of potential rivals, Royale Pagaille has looked a mud machine this winter, but that one has numerous other possible engagements, principally the Gold Cup itself.
- The course commentator has the opportunity to whip Cheltenham in to a frenzy right from the first race.
- In terms of profit and loss, I am going to use Betfair Starting Price, and take into account commission on potential profits.
- They both take place year-round but generally speaking the best jump racing is in winter and the best Flat action is in summer.
- As a professional for many years, I know exactly what the word means in hard cash terms.
- Those rated higher than 140 won 47 races and lost a relatively small 54 points at SP and 2.75 points at BSP.
- While you’ll mostly find it straightforward to pick your winners and place your bets across our recommended bookies, it’s nevertheless important you understand what the most common terms mean and how they might affect your bets.
If Altior wins the Queen Mother
- The tl;dr (bit late now, I realise) is that five of the last six winners – four of them, like Shishkin, odds-on favourites – won by six lengths or more.
- He’s had an incident-free prep thus far and has jumped really well in his three chase races to date.
- While the form of this season’s renewal has yet to be franked, Mystical Power bolted up by seven lengths and he is yet to be extended.
- The key here is that north of 1.00 is good, south of 1.00 not so much.
- It includes all-weather, flat turf, hurdles and chases, UK and Ireland.
- Three years made small losses, two years quite big losses.
- Just 2 winners from 90 runners in the last 15 years prepped there, with losses amounting to over 88p in the £.
- This gives us 15 years’ worth of data to crunch, which is plenty to get our teeth into.
- LH – Thyme Hill form awful, the time was “glacial” 😆 Rain might be important for Gerri Colombe.
Found A Fifty has led in each of his four chase spins and will face pace contention here; that might compromise his chance. In any case, he looks a little way behind peak showings from the other pair mentioned so far. As I write there are four horses priced at 5/1 or shorter, headed – just – by Gaelic Bolts Up Daily Warrior. Trained by Mullins for Ricci, he was presumed for the Turners after his romp in the Grade 1 Faugheen Novices’ Chase over two and a half miles at Christmas. But then came Leopardstown and the Dublin Racing Festival (DRF) where, in the Grade 1 novice chase there, he just ran a shocker.
With nine fences to go
Delta Work is the reigning champ, having retained his crown a year ago, and bids for the three-peat (as they say across the pond – yuk). He’s knocking on a bit now, eleven years young, but that didn’t stop his mate Tiger Roll from bagging his own hat-trick (that’s better) at the same age. When Delta Work won this last year he prepped with a 13 length 6th of eight in the Boyne Hurdle at Navan; this year he’s prepped with a 15 length 6th of eight in the same race, so we all know where we are with him. He handles wet ground fine – it’s wetter on the infield track than the Old and New Courses – and knows his way home blindfold around there. I mean, I expect this to be well run and the top two in the market – who are clearly the best two horses in the field – have had persistent jumping frailties. While they’re comfortably the most likely pair for the exacta, that’s not the way to bet.
Cheltenham Festival Stats for All Races
His form looked to have regressed through the summer but the return to soft at Haydock last time showed he is just ground dependent. She’s a proven Group performer and David Egan will be hoping he can get plenty of cover from stall four. Jarraaf is improving through the ranks and has impressed twice over this track and trip. The main threat is likely to come from the unexposed Min Huna. William Haggas’ filly was a smooth winner of a handicap at Sandown last month and should still be competitive off an 8lb higher mark.
Types of Horse Race Bets
The Coral-Eclipse looks a one-way Enable fest now that Lord North is out of the race so I’m going elsewhere on the Sandown card on Sunday. O’Brien’s exciting colt produced a massive performance in the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot, flying home with a withering late run to topple some well-regarded prospects. And with Enable making her long-awaited return in the Coral-Eclipse on Sunday, the stage is set for a sporting showdown to savour. He has shown his best here and went close over course and distance last time out.
Cheltenham Gold Cup 2022 Preview, Trends, Tips
We work with the belief that every race and every meeting is important, so we’ll give exactly the same coverage to a Monday night meeting at Windsor or an ITV Racing covered race at Newmarket. I still think a mark of 67 somewhat underestimates BRAZEN BOLT and back over this track and trip he looks to have plenty going for him. He travelled notably well before winning convincingly on penultimate start and I can see a similar scenario panning out here.
10: Cross Country Steeple Chase preview – Marlborough’s preview and tips
He’s officially top rated in the line up, on 161, and this season has run 3rd in the Munster National, won the Troytown, been 2nd in the Becher Chase and bolted up in the PP Hogan Cross Country Chase at Punchestown. He stays well, jumps well and handles most ground; the only thing I don’t like about his profile is that it’s a very un-Gordon Elliott prep for the race! That said, Tiger Roll came to the race in good form when winning his second Glenfarclas in 2019, but it’s a weird niggle I can’t quite shake. That leaves Gentleman De Mee, perhaps the most likely pace angle. The second runner for Willie Mullins and a second for JP McManus, this lad beat Edwardstone in the Maghull Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) at Aintree two years ago and won the G1 Dublin Chase of 2023, too, so he’s got plenty of class.
Welcome to horseracing
On official ratings, Gaillard du Mesnil is clear of his field and he obviously has the talent to win; but his inability to put races to bed, even if they have been higher level races, has to be a worry at the price. Against him, there is a clutch of horses separated by only a few pounds on ratings, and it will be the one that adapts best to this somewhat unique test who is the each way bet. That might be the ultra-consistent Mister Coffey, who has placed Festival form to his name. I’ve backed loads of them, which is ridiculous, because I haven’t got a clue who wins.
Bleu Berry wins the Coral Cup
- His pre-race RPR is 7lb superior to anything else in this race and 10lb clear of the top rated in the Supreme (Slade Steel, who he comprehensively beat last time).
- Aidan O’Brien’s Breeders’ Cup winner Unquestionable set the pace, with fellow Ballydoyle runner Henry Longfellow just in behind, while William Buick dropped Notable Speech out in the rear.
- Let’s dive right into some of the horse racing bet types that might take your fancy.
- Last time out, Edwardstone looked a new man under revised tactics.
- He deserved it and we really thought he had a chance,” said Turner.
Handy enough throughout, he pounced on trailblazing Dysart Dynamo approaching the second last and had enough energy left to go clear of a three-way picture for the places between Banbridge, DD and Appreciate It. If they all stand up it’s hard to see the placed horses reversing with the winner, in spite of the argument that the furlong and a bit shorter trip might favour the pace horse. That said, El Fabiolo did not impress with his jumping at Leopardstown. At 16-1 and bigger, with extra places on offer, that makes plenty of appeal. Jigme went on to win the Grade 1 Grand Course later in the year and that form, along with what he’s achieved in two starts at Cheltenham this winter, make him a solid option. Altior, late injury scare or not, is definitely the one to beat.
talkSPORT betting tips – Best bets and expert advice for Saturday at Wetherby
My opinion is that those two perspectives are not mutually exclusive and both hold water. Yet another former Festival winner is Indefatigable whose 2020 Martin Pipe win was a red letter day for trainer Paul Webber but also for geegeez-sponsored then conditional rider, Rex Dingle. Rex came with the proverbial wet sail there, weaving through tiring rivals up the run in to present the mare on the line, a style which has proven more difficult to pull off in smaller field, more steadily run contests since. The best fancied of the Irish party is the Willie Mullins-trained Blue Lord, whose hitherto unbeaten trio over fences culminated with Grade 1 success in the Irish Arkle at the Dublin Racing Festival. His hurdles form was better than respectable – he’d have been comfortably closest to Appreciate It in last year’s Supreme but for tumbling at the last – and he’s looked assured in his leaping thus far.
Put The Kettle On – Mares’ Chase – 5/1 bet365 (NRNB, BOG) or 11/2 PP (NRNB)
FAMOUS CLERMONT is a tentative selection in a wide-open affair, following an effortless 18-length romp at Haydock. The winner of that contest in 2022 went on to follow up in the Albert Bartlett, as The Nice Guy improved hugely for the rise in distance at Cheltenham. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that Seabank Bistro repeats the feat this time around and is worth a small each-way wager. The course which has produced the most winners of the Ayr Gold Cup is Goodwood, there has been a total number of 5 winners of this race who ran at Goodwood last time out. The next best courses which have produced the second most winners are Ripon and Haydock, there has been a total number of 3 winners from each of those courses. When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2006 when the race had an over-round of 122%.
Racing to the second last he switched to the outside, found some better ground and a bit of daylight, and in a few strides had gathered in all but Min. The bookmakers early mark up on the races of interest is too far tilted in their favour. I suppose the thinking is that Saturday punters will have a bet whatever.
The British handicapper seems not to be on the same page with his European counterparts, ranking Irish form more highly and French form lower. On that basis, it’s easy enough to bypass Gaelic Warrior at such cramped odds and I don’t really want to be with The Tide Turns at not much bigger, though naturally I respect the chance of both. Burning Victory was the beneficiary of Goshen’s black swan event at the last in the Triumph Hurdle of 2020 and she’s travelled all over the place since. Specifically, she’s taken in the Galway Hurdle (7th), a Deauville handicap (1st), the Cesarewitch (2nd), a Navan handicap hurdle (tailed off), the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle (3rd) and that defeat of Queen’s Brook last time.
Breeders’ Cup sign up offers and deals as City of Troy chases history
- There is the occasional shock result in Cheltenham Festival novice Grade 1’s.
- The same happened later at Newbury for a race I briefed my private clients about.
- Moreover, the approach was profitable in eight of the ten years, exceptions being 2016 and 2009.
- It is hard to put anyone off backing either of those too but with such a competitive renewal of this race I don’t want to get stuck into something at a shortish price.
- The Coral-Eclipse looks a one-way Enable fest now that Lord North is out of the race so I’m going elsewhere on the Sandown card on Sunday.
- Somewhat downgraded by the absence of a number of high profile horses, most recently and notably Marine Nationale, the reigning Supreme champ, we’re left with a competitive but trappy wagering challenge.
- The jump jockeys’ championship runs for the majority of the year, with just a one-week break.
Sir Mark Prescott celebrated his first Royal Ascot winner since Pivotal in 1996 when Pledgeofallegiance saw off all-comers to win the Ascot Stakes. We did all the donkey work, it was tremendous really and I’m delighted for the horse and delighted for Callum (Rodriguez) and delighted for these guys who have put their money into it – it’s great to have syndicates like this. Trainer Mick Appleby was rightly pleased with the performance of Big Evs in defeat and will now look to campaign his stable star on more speed favouring tracks, like Del Mar in November. “It’s such a gamble bringing her over and it is such an expensive trip. We’re getting a bit of help from Ascot, but it is still expensive and the owner is funding it. “Dropping in with plenty of runners is what he needs and he hasn’t had that yet this year.
- Full Shift figures on a lenient handicap mark if the first time “cheek-pieces+tongue-tie” have a positive effect.
- When looking into the world of horse racing, it is essential to recognise the nuances within each race.
- As I write there are four horses priced at 5/1 or shorter, headed – just – by Gaelic Warrior.
- The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +52.50 is when runners had 1 place in the past 30 days.
- That might be the ultra-consistent Mister Coffey, who has placed Festival form to his name.
- A final word on the thrilling exhibition by Un De Sceaux yesterday which crowned an outstanding day for Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh.
- Kyrov is currently rated 75kg (165), Golden Son 71 (156) and Tanganyika’s mark in France is 61.5 (135).
- O’Connor has been a fine rider over the years but there are no weak links in the riding line-up here, and this race ought to go to the best horse at the trip, pure and simple.
WORLDWIDE STAKES
We’re talking the likes of Cause Of Causes, Tiger Roll, and Delta Work, all of them ‘medalling’ in the Grand National subsequently. And all of them trained by Gordon Elliott (by proxy in one case), a man who trained a National winner before he’d trained a winner in his native Ireland. It’s pretty clumsy and there’s no getting away from that fact.
Our Scout and Trader picked out the following bets for the final Race 👇🏼
But, on balance, I’ll stick with what I have and cheer the champ to repeat and remain unbeaten. Ten of the 15 years would have yielded a profit, and a very good one in nine of those ten positive renewals. Three years made small losses, two years quite big losses. In this article I will attempt to break down the facts and figures going back as far as 2008. This gives us 15 years’ worth of data to crunch, which is plenty to get our teeth into.
It probably makes sense to compare a longer period pre-Cheltenham with a shorter period pre-Cheltenham with performance at the Festival itself. Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) is a means of applying a sliding scale of merit to every finishing position, and doing it in relation to the field size in which that finish was achieved. For instance, 2nd of four has less merit on this metric than 2nd of 40 – and rightly so, of course. Sizing John in 2017 was trying a longer trip and was ridden accordingly, with patience.
- A good horse can win under an inexperienced jockey but not even Sir Anthony McCoy and Frankie Dettori combined will win on a slow one.
- It will be frenetic, due to the field size and the number of jockeys having their first ride of the week.
- The National Hunt Chase has changed markedly in character since gaining Grade 2 status and being shortened in trip.
- Without rain, not sure he’ll enjoy downhill sections of the track.
- Joseph O’Brien won this in 2019 with Band Of Outlaws, and saddles Champion Green this time.
- The tipster behind the ‘No Foto Needed’ service is somebody who currently works within the betting industry and is therefore hugely qualified to supply winning racing tips via this service.
- Sydney Street left his debut run behind to finish third at Ffos Las last time and will be the danger if building on that again.
- The next best courses which have produced the second most winners are Ripon and Haydock, there has been a total number of 3 winners from each of those courses.
Here are the Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap past winners for the last 10 renewals. The horse’s trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off. The Henry de Bromhead pair of Telmesomethinggirl and Lantry Lady shouldn’t be dismissed outright. Telmesomethinggirl, who returned to hurdling this season after a stint over fences, looked rusty on her seasonal return at Leopardstown but was a lot better when a 1¼ length 2nd of four to Zarak The Brave at Naas last time. It’s worth remembering that she was going well when brought down two out in this race in 2022.
Sprinter Sacre may have pulled harder at the heart-strings, as Nicky Henderson said afterwards, but he could not win the Supreme. Opening meeting of the jumps season at Newcastle plus Stratford on Thursday. As the ground at Newcastle is already on the firm side of Good a fair amount of watering will be planned. We then start November with Uttoxeter and the opening day of the Charlie Hall meeting at Wetherby. Decent card at Wetherby on the Friday to get the two day meeting underway.
That’s a potential knock for the strong Willie Mullins-trained fancy, Stattler, who is unbeaten in two fencing contests. In 2013, Mullins won with the unbeaten-in-three Back In Focus, but more recently both 9/4 Ballyward (fell) and 10/11 Carefully Selected (unseated) have succumbed to their inexperience at the obstacles. Still, Stattler’s form credentials are robust and his stamina is assured if his leaping holds up at the expected quicker tempo on quicker turf. Pop back to that Aintree G1 and we find our other joint favourite. There was little between Jonbon and El Fabiolo in Liverpool and they may again be hard to separate. Willie’s contender has had two chasing starts, winning by 19L and 10L, the latter in the Grade 1 Irish Arkle at the Dublin Racing Festival.
Tiger Roll is only small but stays longer than Matt Chapman on Dancing On Ice and he loves Cheltenham, having completed a bizarre double in the two-mile Triumph Hurdle and four-mile National Hunt Chase here. Racing needs superstars, ITV needs the sport to have superstars, and there is relief all round that we will see racing’s current A-lister, Altior, in the Queen Mother Champion Chase. Mick Fitzgerald knows the time of day at Nicky Henderson’s yard and describes Altior as a rocket who would win the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase and probably the Champions League if they let him enter it. I’m going to go for MEETINGOFTHEWATERS, he should get the distance fine and you can’t argue with Willie Mullins’ runners in these big races. It’s time for Paddy’s Ultimate Grand National Cheat Sheet taking in insight from everyone including National winning jockey Ruby Walsh.
Nevertheless, that’s a reservation for now, even though the pre-eminence of the same age group in the Champion Hurdle market says a fair bit about the older generations in the two-mile division currently. That leaves a trio of British-trained hopes, the word ‘hope’ used loosely. Shallwehaveonemore was beaten 26 lengths by Constitution Hill in the Tolworth but has improved a fair bit since. His best form is on decent ground so that’s a plus, and he may have been a little outpaced at Kempton last time when second in Grade 2 company. He could run quite well without challenging the podium places. If we look at market position data instead, clear favourites in Grade 1 races have just edged into profit, albeit by only £6.77 (ROI +3.6%); backing ALL runners in the top four in the betting would have yielded a profit of £55.24 (ROI +6.8%).
A small bet on a race can be a thrilling way to enjoy the action. While the more you know will generally enhance your chances of finding winners – and hence following this sport can give a lifetime of pleasure and achievement – even beginners can improve their odds by following a few simple rules. That is why they have been the world’s favourite betting medium for hundreds of year – you really can study the form (see below) and use it to pick winners. Not getting any younger at the age of seven but looked at the peak of his powers when smashing the course record at Newbury last time. He’s proven on softer ground and will get this race run to suit with plenty of competition for the lead. Danny Tudhope is a brilliant hold up rider and he looks a worthy favourite.
In this case, 2nd of four beats two horses and loses to one horse, so has a PRB score of 67% (or 0.67) for beating two out of three of its rivals. Impact Value (IV) is a measure of how frequently something happens for x in relation to how frequently it happens for all. For instance, how often the going is good to soft on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival compared to how often the going is good to soft over all days of the Cheltenham Festival. Protektorat has been Pricewise’d in the last couple of days, that value vacuum cleaner meaning he’s a rum price for us Johnny Come Lately’s, but he’s not really one I’m yet persuaded by anyway. And so, enfin, let us peruse the past performances, in approximate market rank order.
Get Your Tips Out’s comprehensive coverage extends to global races, including Dubai, enabling punters to access insights on a broad spectrum of events and enhancing their betting strategies with diverse market knowledge. By considering such expert tips and a variety of opinions, punters can navigate through the complexities of horse racing and increase their chances of winning. A 3lb penalty for that success leaves Eilean Dubh 2lb well in according to the British Horseracing Authority handicapper’s maths, and a draw in stall six is another aid to his chance. In one of the trickiest betting races of the week, Noble Dynasty has to make the short-list, along with Jimi Hendrix, Sinjaari and Lawful Command. MAKE MY DAY is the choice to improve on his record of a win and a second from two visits to Goodwood. Successful in spells with John Gosden and Ralph Beckett, the son of Galileo was off the track for 511 days before making the frame twice from three attempts over hurdles.
So we can get down to business, the business of this post being to review current trainer form for the big guns heading into Cheltenham Festival 2021. A Plus Tard has been exposed a couple of times in Festival G1 company now and is short enough for all that he’s hugely talented. Galvin may still be improving but 5/1 readily acknowledges that.
Yesterday’s blog underlined why having a clear line on true value is so important in successful long term professional backing. I had La Breuil in at evens favourite, the impressive winner touched 2/1 before returning an SP of 15/8. Despite the drift from an opening 13/8 – getting around 2/1 for an even money chance is clearly value. The same happened later at Newbury for a race I briefed my private clients about.
Here there appears to be quite strong correlation between Elliott’s four-month form and his Festival form. When looking at a combination of events – say, all trainer’s runners over a period of time – we can derive an overall PRB figure and use that for comparative purposes. Asterion Forlonge – not on his feet for longe [harsh] – is a really talented horse who is probably just a bit soft.
For a horse with a lot of placed efforts to his name, he kept going strongly to win by three and a quarter lengths from the Wathnan Racing-owned duo of Haunted Dream and Torito. “He’s taking on the older horses, the best sprinters in the world, and he’s held his own against them. He’s only going to improve on that as he gets older, I’m very pleased with the run.
